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Predictions
ML V10
Weekly binary event prediction. Bootstrap with logistic regression + hand-set priors; retrains on resolved outcomes with GBT + calibrated classifier. 26,876 historical training records for base rate calibration.
Master multi-country engine processing all active scenario cards (Iran, China/Taiwan). Combines 10+ weighted signals via Bayesian fusion with per-country OSINT, UCDP, market, and sentiment pipelines.
Hybrid rule-based + LLM. Risk tiers (low/moderate/elevated/critical) with actions for Financial, Operational, and Policy audiences.
Interactive what-if engine. Triggers a hypothetical event (e.g., "Russia-Ukraine ceasefire"), then runs polarity-aware kNN over historical analogues to project market impacts across 30+ tracked instruments — oil, equities, defense, FX, rates, commodities. 38-event training pool seeded with canonical historical events (2008-2024).
26,876 labelled training records from UCDP (22,996), Wikipedia (2,553), and GDELT bulk (1,327). Feeds base rate calibration per category.
Real-time aggregation: GDELT headlines, Brent crude, regional stock indices, X/social sentiment, RSS, Polymarket, Flightradar24, MediaCloud.
Sector ETF directional prediction from Trump statements. White House RSS, Truth Social, news feeds. 11 sector ETFs with adaptive confidence.
Rule-based synthesis of think-tank RSS headlines into daily briefings. Enriched with Groq LLM (Llama 3.3 70B) for essay-style summaries.
NASA FIRMS, OpenSky ADS-B, VesselAPI maritime, Sentinel-1 SAR, Flightradar24 military air traffic.
GDELT intensity, MediaCloud attention ratio, curated RSS feeds (Iran International, Al-Monitor, Reuters, SCMP, etc).
X/Twitter sentiment, Wikipedia Current Events, Polymarket prediction market benchmarks.
Brent crude (EIA), regional indices (DFM, Shanghai, STOXX 600), sector ETF pricing.
Powers ThinkTank synthesis & Mitigations enrichment. Llama 3.3 70B, free tier.
| # | Signal | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GDELT headline intensity | GDELT API | Active |
| 2 | Brent crude oil price | EIA API | Active |
| 3 | Regional stock index | Yahoo Finance | Active |
| 4 | X/social sentiment | X API | Active |
| 5 | RSS news feed signal | Curated RSS | Active |
| 6 | Prior probability (inertia) | Internal | Active |
| 7 | De-escalation keywords | NLP / Regex | Active |
| 8 | OSINT sensors | FIRMS, ADS-B, AIS, SAR | Active |
| 9 | Flightradar24 military air | Flightradar24 | Active |
| 10 | MediaCloud news attention | MediaCloud API | Active |
| Source | Records | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| UCDP Conflict Data | 22,996 | 1989 — 2024 |
| Wikipedia Events | 2,553 | 24 months recent |
| GDELT Bulk CSV | 1,327 | 30 days (expandable) |
| Combined Total | 26,876 | 21 event categories |
| Scenario | Country | Key Signals |
|---|---|---|
| Regime Change 2026 | Iran | GDELT, UCDP, OSINT, Polymarket, Oil |
| Hormuz Control Loss | Iran | AIS Maritime, FIRMS, Oil, RSS |
| Kharg Island Seizure | Iran | ADS-B, SAR, FIRMS, VesselAPI |
| Taiwan Invasion 2026 | China | GDELT, Polymarket, X, RSS |
| ETF | Sector | ETF | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy | XLY | Consumer Disc. |
| XLF | Financials | XLP | Consumer Staples |
| XLK | Technology | XLC | Communications |
| XLV | Healthcare | XLB | Materials |
| XLI | Industrials | ITA | Defense & Aero |
| SPY | S&P 500 Broad Market | ||